The Signal and the Noise

About “The Signal and the Noise”

A non-fiction work by Nate Silver, who built a system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election closely, and became a national sensation as a blogger before founding FiveThirtyEight.com. The book examines how to distinguish true signals from noisy data, visiting successful forecasters across hurricanes, baseball, poker, the stock market, and politics to explain why most predictions fail and how humility about uncertainty improves forecasting.